Sadly, most people aren’t as interested in Chess as they are in reading about cheating in Chess.

And we have black mold in a ceiling. 😔

I’m going to shamefully admit that I haven’t seen Hocus Pocus 1. 🫢

Currently reading: What We Owe the Future by William MacAskill 📚

About a third in. Have listened to several podcasts featuring interviews with William MacAskill. He’s amazing at framing the impact of our societal choices in long-term, even universal-level ways.

“In a time of recession, we could drop taxes on new spending, giving the rich and poor alike more reason to spend. In times of inflation, we could raise taxes on new spending, particularly among the wealthy, giving them a concrete reason to cut back immediately and to save and invest more at the same time.”

— Ezra Klein

Really interesting idea here for having automatic tax policy for controlling inflation in a fair way for all income levels.

I’ve come to realize that being forced to do something you don’t enjoy often also forces you to learn in unexpected ways. A good perspective to keep in mind.

Bruce Willis’ Rep Refutes Report That He Sold Likeness for Deepfakes – The Hollywood Reporter

I guess this story wasn’t as bad as I thought. Still creepy, though.

I’m very late to the party on The Old Man with Jeff Bridges. Just fantastic. Two episodes in and can’t wait to see where it goes.

Deepfake Bruce Willis may be the next Hollywood star, and he’s OK with that - Ars Technica

In case you haven’t had enough dystopian news lately.

Currently reading: Station Eleven by Emily St. John Mandel 📚

I’ve found in recent years that my attention span has shriveled. I either take forever to get through books or abandon them. Not so with Station Eleven. I’ve torn through it in less than a week and will finish shortly.

Emily St. John Mandel is a stunning talent. Every character feels so nuanced and real. She finds such beauty in scenes of utter bleakness. I plan on watching the HBO mini-series based on this book soon and will definitely try another of her books.

I don’t consider myself a source of wisdom. But, one can’t help but pick up a few useful nuggets across the decades. Here are some of mine.

• Your ego is bigger than you realize. It keeps you from trying new things and tackling challenges rather than avoiding them. It’s ok to fail. It’s ok for others to see you fail. Life will go on, and you will grow. Playing chess is a recent growth area where I often fail horribly. I’m marclafountain on chess.com if you’d like to view my many lost games. Maybe we can play!
• Meditation is wonderful, but it’s about being more present in the current moment rather than reaching a profound Aha Ha Moment. You need to have that realistic expectation for it. If meditation hasn’t worked for you, try different teachers, apps, prompts, koans, etc. You will find something that clicks eventually. This prompt was a game-changer for me: “What would it feel like if there was no problem to solve?"
• As a child and young adult, you’re forced to try a lot of new things—foods, activities, learning topics, etc. You use this experience to figure out what you like and don’t like. With age, you gain more agency in making choices and often stick with known likes. But, the you of today is somewhat different from the younger you. Maybe you’re assuming you wouldn’t like something now when you’d actually love it. Don’t be afraid to question your assumptions and experiment at any age. (That said, the me of today still thinks eggplant is weird.)
• You would like yourself better if you became a vegetarian. Think about a dog or cat that you’ve loved. Think about their intelligence, personality, and emotional range. If a dog or cat is that complex, aren’t cows, pigs, and lambs likely complex beings too? Do you owe those other animals less respect than a pet? The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by going vegetarian is also profound. And, you may be surprised at how much easier it is to go vegetarian now versus times past. The veggie options at restaurants and grocery stores are vastly better than they were even a few years ago.
• Yoga is awesome both physically and mentally. It’s not just awesome for women, young people, or the mythical “naturally flexible.” It’s awesome for anyone at any age who can safely do it. As with meditation, try different teachers, classes, apps, styles, etc. You will find something that clicks eventually. For me, Yin Yoga is what clicked. It focuses less on balance, strength, and flow and more on holding stretches for longer to increase range of motion.
• There’s lots of research that people are made happier by having experiences than by owning objects. I feel that deeply. Time spent with family, friends, and pets. Travel to beautiful and interesting places. Great food and drink. Great TV shows, movies, and books. Those experiences make me happy, and reflecting back on them does too. Owning objects rarely makes me happy for very long. Granted, the line between experience and object can be blurry. When considering a significant purchase, ask yourself if it will create or enhance experiences for you. If not, it may just be an object that will bring you little pleasure in the long run.
• Speaking of buying things, never start out subscribing to the one-year or lifetime version of anything new. Your enthusiasm for a shiny new thing in the first days, weeks, and even months will often wane with time. And, your life circumstances may change and reduce the appeal of the new thing. If you’ve used a thing for more than a year, you can better evaluate a longer-term subscription to it.
• As we age, many of our early human relationships wither. You may have old friends and extended family with whom haven’t meaningfully interacted in many years, even decades. At some point, it can feel like too much time has passed to ever reconnect. I’ve found that’s not true. When I make the effort to reconnect with people from my past, it’s always rewarding. We tend to pick up right where we left off and enjoy each other’s company again. Don’t hesitate to reach out to people that you care about.

That feels like enough pearls of wisdom for today. Hope you found something in there useful.

Despite controlling the presidency and Congress, Democrats have failed to deliver for those who elected them. They have created inflation and can’t stop it.

This is the political perception of our moment. But, that perception is deeply flawed, and we must change it before the critical mid-term elections.

Delivering Results

What have Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats delivered? A partial list:

• Got Donald Trump out of office, an achievement that cannot be overstated.
• Conducting an incredibly effective House investigation of the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.
• Led a comprehensive effort to roll out COVID vaccines and boosters.
• Passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.
• Passed $550 million in new investment in an infrastructure and jobs bill.
• Responded decisively and effectively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Passed the first federal gun control legislation since 1994.
• Had the U.S. rejoin the Paris Agreement to combat climate change.
• Brokered an agreement with 130 countries to require corporations to pay at least 15% income tax wherever they operate.
• Had the U.S. rejoin the World Health Organization.
• Made Kamala Harris vice president, the first woman, African American, and Asian American to hold that office.
• Named a diverse presidential cabinet, including Pete Buttigieg as the first openly-gay cabinet member.
• Made Ketanji Brown Jackson the first African American woman to serve on the Supreme Court.
• Filled 73 other federal judicial vacancies with a diverse set of appointees, with 46 more nominations pending in the Senate.
• Ended wasteful funding for a border wall with Mexico that would have been ineffective at stopping illegal immigration while causing environmental and diplomatic harm.
• Revoked the permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline, along with creating executive orders to combat climate change.
• Strengthened U.S. relationships in vital international organizations such as NATO, the G7, the Quad, and AUKUS.
• Passed a $280 billion CHIPS Plus bill to alleviate the microchip shortage and shore up U.S. competitiveness with China. (Added this point on August 2, 2022.)
• Killed Al Qaeda leader and 9/11 plotter Ayman Al Zawahiri. (Added this point on August 2, 2022.)
• Passed the PACT Act to help veterans who were exposed to toxic chemicals while deployed abroad. (Added this point on August 3, 2022.

This Congress is likely to pass yet more legislation, potentially including:

• Vital revisions to the Electoral Count Act to protect elections.
• A Respect for Marriage Act protecting same-sex marriage.
• An Inflation Reduction Act authorizing $370 billion in spending on energy and climate change, $300 billion in deficit reduction, three years of Affordable Care Act subsidies, prescription drug reform, and tax reform.

Do the lists above contain everything Democratic constituencies want? Nope. Did many of those items involve compromises liberals didn’t like? Yep. But, with Democrats controlling the Senate by a single vote and the House by ~1% of votes, these are good outcomes. Democrats should crow more about them.

Inflation

“But, Democrats and inflation!” you may cry. Inflation in the U.S. is indeed alarming. And, Democrats have contributed to the problem with too much recent fiscal stimulus. But, that is far from the full, bipartisan picture.

In December 2017, Trump and Congressional Republicans passed massive tax cuts favoring the wealthy and corporations without corresponding spending cuts. The cuts are estimated to add $2 trillion to $2.4 trillion to the national debt over ten years. Too much fiscal stimulus is a bipartisan problem.

Trump paired his tax cuts with protectionist trade policies that raises prices or keeps them high. He pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. But, Biden hasn’t joined TPP’s successor or removed the tariffs on China. Protectionist trade policies are a bipartisan problem too.

Inflation is also being driven by supply chain issues due to COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Republicans and Democrats didn’t create either of those problems. (Though, I would argue Biden has responded more effectively to COVID and Russian aggression than Trump did.)

Finally, the Federal Reserve waited too long to raise interest rates to combat inflation. That’s a bipartisan problem, too, given that both parties have nominated Fed governors in recent years. (Clearest example: Chair Jay Powell is a Republican appointed to the board by Obama, later made chair by Trump, and then renominated as chair by Biden.)

Massive tax cuts, massive stimulus, supply chain problems, and loose monetary policy. Many things have combined to create our inflationary environment, most of them being bipartisan in nature.

Changing Perception and Changing Policy

Democrats need to trumpet their achievements, to revel in them. They need to make it clear that Republicans bear their share of the blame for the current economy. And, they need to convince mid-term voters to give them larger Congressional majorities to more meaningfully tackle major problems. The most important of those problems is, yes, inflation.

The Inflation Reduction Act is a good start, but bolder action is needed. While free trade and immigration may look like political third rails, Democrats should dare to touch them.

A good start would be for the U.S. to join the successor to TPP, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or a new agreement much like it. More goods entering the U.S. at lower prices would reduce inflation while helping to balance against Chinese influence in APAC.

Congress also needs to take another stab at comprehensive immigration reform. Allowing appropriate numbers of new immigrants with needed skills would help bring high wage growth and low unemployment to healthier levels. It would increase entrepreneurship in our economy. It would also help deal with our below replacement level birth rate and aging population.

Biden and Democrats shouldn’t allow misperceptions about their achievements, the causes of inflation, or the best solutions for it to continue. Voters need to understand what Democrats have gotten done and what they want to do next.

What would a national abortion rights law that can get 60 votes in the Senate look like?

With the Supreme Court poised to overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, that is the vital question supporters of abortion rights should be asking themselves. Sadly, that doesn't seem to be where most of us are—at least not yet.

We don't just need anger and outrage. We need an achievable solution that preserves abortion rights as much as possible in all states of Union.

Roe and Casey Won't Become Federal Law

The Senate will likely soon vote on legislation to make the abortion rights created by Roe and Casey federal law to some degree. That vote will fail to clear the 60-vote threshold to stop a filibuster by a large margin.

Perhaps 49 Senate Democrats and Independents—all Democrats but pro-life Joe Manchin of West Virginia—will vote in favor.  Perhaps pro-choice GOP Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska will also vote in favor. Likely all other Republican Senators will vote against. The measure will still be at least nine votes short of clearing the filibuster.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says "every American is going to see which side every senator stands" with this vote. But, as my prior paragraph notes, it's already pretty clear where every senator stands.

More importantly, it's unlikely any pro-life senator will pay a political price by casting a vote against abortion legislation as permissive as Roe/Casey. These days, GOP senators are most worried about looking like a RINO in a Republican primary. Alienating pro-choice voters who probably never supported them is much lower on their list of concerns.

Calls to scrap the Senate filibuster and pass Roe/Casey legislation with a simple Senate majority are misguided. Manchin, Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, and GOP senators are against scrapping the filibuster for any reason. And, Manchin certainly won't help kill it for pro-choice legislation. The votes to end the filibuster simply aren't there. (Democrats may also be glad they have the filibuster if they lose control of the Senate this year or in 2024.)

So, we will end up with a contentious vote on Roe/Casey legislation that fails to clear the filibuster, further embitters both sides, likely has no effect on which senators win reelection, and does nothing to protect abortion rights. This is not how abortion rights advocates should expend their energy.

A Different Legislative Path

We need to create a national abortion rights law that can pass the Senate with 60 votes. While that may sound impossible, with some painful compromise by all sides, it may be achievable.

The compromise I suggest below may seem heretical to many pro-choice proponents and a long shot to attract enough Republican votes. However, we clearly cannot continue to rely on the Supreme Court to protect an unenumerated right to abortion in the Constitution.

If we continue on our current path, abortion rights will soon disappear in Red states. Republicans will also continue to push federal judicial nominations and laws that attempt to curtail abortion rights nationally. Now, while Democrats control the Presidency, House, and Senate, we must push for a bold deal with Senate Republicans on abortion rights.

I propose a compromise where the legal time limit for unrestricted abortion is moved earlier in pregnancy. (I'll talk about new time limit specifics in a bit.) This time limit change would be made in return for new social policies and major government spending that:

• Reduce unwanted pregnancies through non-abstinence based sex education and improved access to contraception.
• Make pregnancy and childbirth easier for women with low incomes through paid or heavily-subsidized medical care.
• Guarantee access to abortion clinics in all states for women wishing to use them within the bounds of the law.
• Protect pregnant women by legally guaranteeing they may have an abortion at any time if their pregnancy endangers their health or if their fetus has fatal abnormalities.
• Make raising a child easier through programs for all families like paid maternity/paternity leave and universal Pre-Kindergarten and means-tested programs like expanded Child Tax Credits and paid or heavily-subsidized child care.
• Properly resource foster care and adoption systems so that children in them have better care and a chance at more rapid adoption.

Can we get everything on that list at the level we want it in a deal with Republicans? No. But, we could negotiate for a lot because we can offer Senate Republicans things at least some of them will want in return:

1. Unwanted pregnancies will be reduced through better sex education and access to contraception.
2. Pregnant women will choose to have fewer abortions as they will have better social and economic support for having a baby and either raising it or giving it up for adoption.
3. Abortions for non-medical reasons will have an earlier time limit in Blue states. This will be a big win for pro-lifers. More than two-thirds of abortions occur in Blue states despite Roe/Casey currently providing abortion rights in Red states. The percentage of abortions taking place in Blue states post Roe/Casey will likely be even higher. Republicans will care deeply about this.
4. We will help to create a "culture of life" that reduces abortions, supports families in raising children, better supports foster care and adoption, and begins to reverse America's plummeting birth rate.

I'm sure you're already thinking about all the reasons this compromise would never get enough support from either side. Let me address some of the major concerns.

Why Accept A Shorter Time Limit?

I'm a man. I'm suggesting that women give up a degree of bodily autonomy through an earlier legal time limit for unrestricted abortion. I get the optics of that. But, pregnant women living in all states would get a great deal of legal and economic support in return with this compromise.

That support would reduce unwanted pregnancies. It would help with abortions within the new legal time limit and with abortions for medical reasons at any time. It would help with having a baby and giving it up for adoption. It would help with having and raising a baby. Women would still be empowered to make the choices that are best for them and then would be better supported after making those choices.

So, what would the new time limit for unrestricted abortion be? Something between 15 weeks and 20 weeks, depending on how much new social policy and spending Republicans are willing to offer in return.

Your immediate reaction may be that a limit of 15-20 weeks into pregnancy doesn't give enough time for a woman to make an abortion decision and have one. But, it is actually already enough time now in the vast majority of cases.

Pregnant women can currently have unrestricted abortions for up to 24 weeks into pregnancy. That is the generally accepted standard of fetal viability under Casey. However, women rarely wait anywhere near that long. In 2019, 92.7% of abortions were performed at 13 weeks or less, 6.2% were performed at 14–20 weeks, and <1.0% were performed at 21 weeks or more.

Less than 7.2% of abortions in 2019 happened after the 13th week. If we move the time limit for unrestricted abortion to something in the 15-20 week range—still higher than 13 weeks—and maintain protection for medically-necessary abortions, the change would impact a small percentage of abortion seekers.

Those impacted could choose to have earlier abortions with better legal support, still have medically-necessary abortions at any time, or use the new support systems to help have their babies. Also, perhaps some women will have now avoided unwanted pregnancies with better sex education and contraception access.

While I realize an earlier time limit isn't something pro-choice advocates will like, it is manageable for all the reasons above.

Why Would Republicans Agree to This?

Republicans aren't known for supporting abortion rights, social programs, or major government spending. So, yes, this will be a hard sell. I'm not denying that.

But, if Republicans can forge a compromise to reduce abortions, have unrestricted abortions limited at an earlier time nationwide, help parents raise children, and help reduce US population decline, there's a lot of conservative red meat to like there.

Also, polls consistently show that a majority of Americans supports abortion with restrictions. It's one thing for a Republican senator to oppose Roe/Casey. It's another to oppose a compromise that shortens the time limit for unrestricted abortion and helps raise families. By embracing this compromise, Democrats could make Republicans take on unpopular positions if they don't compromise in turn.

Finally, we don't need that many more Senate votes. As noted at the start of this piece, there could be ~51 Senate votes to pass something like Roe/Casey into law now. If the benefits of this compromise can keep those votes and sway nine more, it will clear the filibuster.

Manchin and Utah Republican Mitt Romney have independent streaks and like a good bipartisan deal.

Several Republican senators are retiring this year. So they may be feeling more independent or looking toward their legacies. Roy Blunt (a dealmaker from Missouri), Richard Burr (North Carolina), Rob Portman (a moderate from Ohio), Richard Shelby (a former Democrat from Alabama), and Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania) are all worth approaching.

Republican senators considering a presidential run in 2024 may also consider this compromise if they can sell voters on the conservative benefits of it while looking like a bipartisan leader.

We Must Move Forward

Unsuccessful show votes in the Senate and energizing pro-choice voters aren't enough of a response to what the Supreme Court will soon do to Roe/Casey. We need to pursue a bold legislative compromise on abortion rights. And, we need to do it while Democrats control the Presidency, House, and Senate. The time to act is now.